Asteroid 2024 YR4 May Miss Earth but Could Strike the Moon in 2032

Asteroid 2024 YR4, initially thought to be on a collision course with Earth, is now drawing scientific attention for its potential to strike the moon in late 2032. Recent observations have ruled out an Earth impact, but updated trajectory data indicate a small chance the asteroid could hit the lunar surface, according to NASA.

Discovered at the end of 2024, YR4 reached a peak 3.1% chance of impacting Earth in February, making it the highest-risk asteroid ever observed at that time. Improved measurements from ground- and space-based telescopes, including the James Webb Space Telescope, have since refined its orbit and size, estimated at about 200 feet in diameter. "Knowing YR4's size helped us understand how big of an explosion it could be," said Julien de Wit, associate professor of planetary sciences at MIT.

While an impact on the moon would not threaten life on Earth, it could pose risks to astronauts, lunar infrastructure, and satellites in orbit. Dr. Paul Wiegert, professor of astronomy and physics at Western University, noted, "We now have things worth protecting that are a bit further away from Earth, so our vision is hopefully expanding a little bit to encompass that."

A lunar collision could create a crater about 0.6 miles wide and release up to 220 million pounds of lunar material, based on recent modeling. Some of this debris could reach Earth, resulting in a visible meteor shower, but experts say there is no danger to people on the ground. "We're not expecting large boulders or anything larger than maybe a sugar cube, and our atmosphere will protect us very nicely from that," Wiegert said. However, fast-moving particles could pose a hazard to satellites and any missions in low-Earth orbit.

Researchers continue to monitor YR4 and assess possible mitigation strategies, as the event could provide a rare opportunity to observe a significant lunar impact in real time.