仅事实
抵押贷款利率降至自2022年底以来最低水平，市场预期美联储将降息
摘要
30年期固定抵押贷款平均利率降至6.13%，为2022年底以来最低水平，投资者预计美联储将降息。
周二，30年期固定抵押贷款的平均利率下降了12个基点，降至6.13%，创下自2022年底以来的最低水平。此次下降发生在抵押贷款支持证券的投资者为预期中的美联储降息做准备之际。
《抵押贷款新闻日报》首席运营官马修·格雷厄姆指出，这种情况与2024年9月非常相似，他表示：“整体形势让人想起2024年9月，当时利率因同样的原因在美联储会议前出现类似走势，降息几乎是百分之百确定的。”他提醒说，正如2024年那样，尽管美联储降息，但抵押贷款利率可能会出现反常的上升，尽管这种结果并非必然。
商业地产公司Walker & Dunlop首席执行官威利·沃克强调了历史规律，解释称在经济衰退环境下，美联储降息往往会降低长期利率；但在当前这样的非衰退时期，此类降息可能不会对长期利率产生显著影响。沃克预计至少会有25个基点的降息，可能还会有后续降息，但他不认为这会对长期利率产生重大影响。
他还表示，当前收益率可能在未来几周内上升，并补充道：“我不试图预测利率走向，但我认为人们可能会在传闻时买入，在消息公布时卖出。我认为在美联储实际宣布25个基点降息后，10年期国债收益率可能会小幅回升。”
来源
CNBC事实核查
使用外部来源和数据库核实文章的事实。
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The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage decreased by 12 basis points to 6.13% on Tuesday.
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This decline comes as investors in mortgage-backed securities position themselves ahead of an expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
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Matthew Graham noted the similarity to September 2024, stating that the overall setup is reminiscent of September 2024 when rates were doing the same thing for the same reasons ahead of a Fed meeting.
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He cautioned that mortgage rates could paradoxically rise after the Fed's rate cut, though this outcome is not guaranteed.
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Willy Walker highlighted that in recessionary environments, Fed rate cuts tend to lower long-term rates.
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However, in non-recessionary periods like the current one, such cuts may not significantly impact long-term rates.
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Walker anticipates at least a 25 basis point cut, possibly followed by another, but does not expect substantial effects on long-term rates.
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