Super El Niño expected to drive warmer north and wetter south this winter
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center says the rapidly strengthening El Niño is expected to become a record-breaking event that could bring warmer temperatures to the northern United States and wetter conditions to the south during the upcoming winter, according to forecasts released on August 20, 2026. Earlier forecasts have shown a high probability that the current El Niño will reach very strong or record strength. A Los Angeles Times report on August 13, 2026 cited a 95 % chance of very strong status and prompted California officials to prepare for above-average precipitation.
WRAL noted a greater than 90 % chance of a very strong El Niño that may suppress Atlantic hurricanes and increase winter rainfall in North Carolina. WIRED highlighted a more than 90 % chance that the 2023-24 El Niño could become the strongest on record, affecting global precipitation, hurricanes and drought. FOX Weather estimated a 69 % probability that the event will be the strongest since 1950, with impacts expected to extend into 2027.
