How Famine Is Officially Declared and Why Gaza Has Not Yet Met the Criteria

Gaza continues to experience severe shortages of food, water, and medicine, with international organizations warning of worsening hunger. The World Food Programme recently reported that a third of Gaza's population is going multiple days without eating, and U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres described the situation as a "horror show" of devastation and starvation.

The process for declaring a famine follows a specific, internationally recognized system known as the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), developed in 2004. This system categorizes hunger crises on a five-phase scale, with phase five representing famine. To meet the famine threshold, at least 20% of households must face extreme food shortages, at least 30% of children under five must suffer from acute malnutrition, and at least two out of every 10,000 adults must die each day from non-trauma causes.

Currently, Gaza is classified in phase four, or "emergency," with the IPC estimating that nearly 44% of the population is experiencing acute food insecurity and 12% are already in "catastrophe" conditions. However, collecting reliable data in conflict zones is challenging. Jean-Martin Bauer, director for food security and nutrition analysis at the World Food Programme, noted that "lack of data can hinder an official classification of famine. By the time famine is declared, people are already dying."

Even when technical criteria are met, only government institutions, senior United Nations officials, or other high-level representatives can make an official famine declaration. Experts emphasize that starvation and hunger-related deaths can occur before a formal declaration is made. Tim Hoffine of FEWS NET explained that "the longer this goes without a solution, the more that we can expect that sort of mortality to occur."

Both FEWS NET and the IPC stress that famine in Gaza can still be prevented if hostilities end and humanitarian access is restored. Their reports are intended to prompt action before the situation reaches the most severe phase. As former World Food Programme spokesperson Steve Taravella said, the classification system "puts the world on notice."