Questions Emerge About Khamenei's Succession After Iran-Israel Conflict

After Iran's Conflict with Israel, Questions Arise Regarding Khamenei's Successor

In the aftermath of the 12-day conflict in June between Israel and Iran, discussions have emerged about Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. At 86 years old and reportedly a potential target during the conflict, there is increased attention on the issue of succession.

There has only been one previous instance of succession for Iran's supreme leader, which occurred in 1989 when Khamenei was selected to succeed Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader of the 1979 Islamic revolution.

Nearly four decades later, this process is again under consideration, according to Vali Nasr, an Iran specialist at Johns Hopkins University.

"Everything in Iran in the past four or five years has really been about succession," he says.

Khamenei has periodically provided names of potential successors to the Assembly of Experts, a group of approximately 80 clerics responsible for selecting the next leader. Nasr notes that following the recent conflict with Israel and the U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear sites, the matter of succession has become more pressing.

"I think in the interest of preservation of the state and ensuring its continuity, [Khamenei] created contingency plans to make a transfer of power much more smooth and quick," he says.

Speculation about possible successors ranges from hardliners such as his son Mojtaba Khamenei and Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini, to former presidents with reformist backgrounds, including Hassan Rouhani and Mohammad Khatami.

Afshan Ostovar, an Iran analyst at the Naval Postgraduate School, suggests that Khamenei has reasons not to disclose his preferred successor.

"Khamenei is going to lose status because he's going to have a successor," he says, adding that the successor may become a target for political criticism. "So, the longer that successor is known, the longer opponents are going to have to sort of tarnish his brand."

Ostovar states that the successor is expected to be a cleric.

"If you didn't have a cleric succeeding Khamenei, you would no longer have an Islamic revolution. You no longer have an Islamic republic," he says. "It would be a completely different system."

However, Ali Vaez, who leads the Iran project at the International Crisis Group, suggests that the next leader may not necessarily be a religious figure. He observes that Iran has faced significant challenges under Khamenei, including economic difficulties, societal dissatisfaction, loss of regional influence, and recent military setbacks. Vaez notes that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) may view this as an opportunity for change.

"It is quite possible that Ayatollah Khamenei is the last supreme leader of Iran," he says. "It is hard to imagine that the military, the Revolutionary Guards, which has paid the highest price for Ayatollah Khamenei's strategic mistakes, would continue seeing the clerical establishment as an asset and not as a liability."

The qualifications and characteristics of the next leader are also under discussion.

Ostovar suggests the successor may be perceived as less influential by Iran's powerbrokers, including clerics, politicians, and business leaders.

"None of the institutions of power within the Islamic Republic already are going to want to just hand over the kingdom to somebody who's going to become a dictator," he says. "The weaker a person is, the more influence that all the factions can potentially exercise over that person."

Khamenei was viewed as less influential when he became supreme leader, but he developed alliances, particularly with the IRGC, according to Nasr. Nasr notes that the IRGC has a significant role in governance, media, the economy, and decision-making processes.

"They are in the government. They control media. They control vast areas of the economy. They are in decision making circles in a way," he says. "They are operating the way the Egyptian or the Pakistani military operate, behind a civilian facade."

Nasr observes that some power brokers believe changes are necessary and that Iran's stance toward the West may have reached its limit.

"There [are] powerful voices that are not saying we should tomorrow morning become absolute friends of the West," he says. "But basically, they're saying we should end the war with the West and we should go down the path of de-escalation."

Nasr adds that normalization could follow de-escalation.

The circumstances of Khamenei's death may also influence the succession process. Nasr suggests that if Khamenei dies of natural causes, a moderate could become supreme leader. If he is assassinated, a hardline cleric may be selected to maintain continuity after a violent transition.