Criminologists Assess Impact of Federal Crime Interventions in U.S. Cities

The Trump administration's recent deployment of federal forces to Democratic-led cities has prompted criminologists to assess the strategy's effectiveness in crime deterrence. Particular attention is given to the National Guard, whose members lack direct policing authority. In Washington, D.C., they have been observed near tourist sites and engaged in activities like litter collection. Some studies suggest that their visible presence may deter criminal activity.

Jerry Ratcliffe, a criminology professor at the University of Pennsylvania, draws parallels between these deployments and the United Kingdom's police community support officers, who are uniformed but lack traditional police powers. He references a UK study indicating that deploying such officers to crime hotspots led to reductions in crime and disorder. Ratcliffe notes, "So it's fairly clear that some kind of uniformed government presence, that doesn't have to be the police, can have at least on the surface level a deterrence value."

However, the applicability of these findings to U.S. cities remains uncertain. Criminologists caution that the military identity of the National Guard, combined with their presence in cities that did not request them, could foster resentment among residents. Additionally, it is unclear whether the federal government is employing evidence-based "hot spot" strategies in deploying Guard units. Brandon Tregle, a criminologist at the University of South Carolina, emphasizes the importance of data-driven approaches, stating, "We know that violent crime is concentrated both in place and in people. So about 10% of offenders account for about 50% of violent crime. And then about 10% of the most active places account for about 50% of violent crime in a city."

When questioned about the use of "hot spot" methods in National Guard deployments, a Justice Department spokesperson declined to comment, citing "operational security." In an emailed statement, the spokesperson wrote, "This Administration made a promise to the American people to make our cities safe again, and that's exactly what we're doing in Washington, DC, Memphis, and other high-crime communities across the country."

Despite a nationwide decline in crime rates over the past two years, cities like Washington and Memphis continue to experience violent crime rates above the national average. President Trump recently suggested using "some of these dangerous cities as training grounds for our military," though specifics of this proposal remain unclear. In Oregon, where approximately 200 National Guard members have been federalized to protect federal buildings in Portland, state legislators inquired about such plans. Russell Gibson of the Oregon Military Department responded, "Not that I'm aware of," adding, "I can't picture in my mind what that would look like at all."

Short-term results in Washington, D.C., indicate a decrease in crime during the initial months of federal involvement, particularly in murder rates compared to the previous year. Jim Burch, president of the National Policing Institute, attributes this to the increased officer presence, stating, "Any city in America with a 50% increase in their officers is going to be able to have some kind of impact on public safety. But that's not reality. That's not the fiscal reality." He also cautioned about potential unintended consequences for local police following such federal interventions.