Elon Musk warns short sellers of low survival odds as bets on SpaceX reach $25 billion

Elon Musk posted on X that firms holding sizable short positions in SpaceX are unlikely to survive over time. He added that the company’s value could exceed that of Earth if it meets its objectives.

Data from S3 Partners shows that approximately 206 million SpaceX shares, or 32% of the publicly tradable float, are currently sold short, representing about $25 billion in bearish bets. The short count has risen sharply from roughly 185 million shares a week earlier and from about 40 million shares a month ago.

SpaceX’s shares closed at $123.46 on Tuesday, up 3% and ending a seven-day losing streak, after the stock had fallen to a new low of $119.85, well below its post-IPO high of $225.64.

The short buildup accelerated as investors positioned ahead of the company’s first quarterly earnings release, scheduled for after market close on Aug. 4, and the subsequent lock-up expirations that will increase the number of shares available for trading.

Despite a 33% year-over-year revenue increase to about $19 billion over the trailing twelve months, SpaceX’s market capitalization is estimated at $1.6 trillion, giving the stock a price-to-sales multiple above 80 and reflecting ongoing annual losses.

Analysts note that a short squeeze would require not only a large short interest but also pressure on short sellers to cover, such as rising borrowing costs or a catalyst that undermines the bearish case. While the 32% short ratio suggests a crowded bet, the imminent expansion of the tradable float—currently around 640 million shares, roughly 5% of the total 13 billion shares—could ease borrowing constraints and reduce squeeze risk.

Investors shorting SpaceX are advised to remain cautious, as a rapid rally could trigger a squeeze, but such price movements do not alter the company’s underlying earnings or spending profile.