NATO summit in Turkey tests European defence spending commitments amid U.S. pressure
European leaders gather in Ankara to discuss how higher defence budgets will be turned into capability, the alliance's support for Ukraine and the prospect of the United States reducing its role.
European defence ministers convened in Ankara this week to assess whether increased spending can be translated into operational capability and to address the alliance’s future without a dominant U.S. presence. The summit follows last year’s Hague agreement that set a target of 5% of gross domestic product on defence by 2035, including 3.5% for core requirements and 1.5% for broader security needs.
Analysts say the meeting will shift focus from pledges to implementation, examining procurement processes, industrial capacity and the political framework the Trump administration has described as “NATO 3.0.” > "This is really the NATO summit where NATO goes from burden sharing to burden shifting," said Ulrike Franke, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
U.S. officials have pressed European capitals to assume greater responsibility for their own security, a move that could reshape NATO’s 77-year reliance on American power. Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program at CSIS, warned that if Washington reduces its involvement, Europe will need a clear “plan B” for organising defence without the United States at the centre.
The alliance also faces pressure to sustain aid for Ukraine while adapting to rapid advances in drone technology, air-defence systems and industrial production. Ukraine’s own development of long-range drones and counter-drone capabilities is increasingly viewed as a source of innovation for NATO, according to Franke.
European defence spending has risen unevenly, with Poland, the Baltic states and the Nordic countries moving fastest, while larger economies such as the United Kingdom and France confront fiscal constraints. Franke noted that “there is money in the system, but we need to be able to spend it,” highlighting the need for domestic production capacity.
Turkey, the summit host, is expected to use the forum to advance its security concerns and defence-industry interests. Bergmann said President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is likely to seek legitimacy for his regime and greater access to European procurement contracts, given Turkey’s NATO membership but exclusion from the EU.
The outcomes of the Ankara meeting will shape NATO’s ability to keep the United States engaged, accelerate European capability building and maintain a coordinated response to the war in Ukraine.
