Experts Say Weeks Needed to Clear Hormuz Shipping Backlog After U.S.-Iran Deal

The Strait of Hormuz is expected to reopen following a memorandum of understanding signed by the United States and Iran, but shipping executives say a full resumption of traffic will be gradual. Adam Sharpe, vice-president of editorial at Lloyd's List Intelligence, told CNBC that a phased restart with a traffic-management mechanism involving Iran and Oman is the most likely scenario. He noted unresolved issues such as prior permission for vessels, possible service charges, acceptance of foreign naval escorts and the need to clear any mines.

Data from Lloyd's List Intelligence show pre-conflict daily transits of 90-110 vessels, while Kpler estimates that about 118 tankers were stranded in the Persian Gulf. Kpler analysts project a 10- to 15-day period to clear the immediate backlog, but caution that this would not constitute a full recovery of throughput. Prioritisation is expected to favour oil tankers and LNG carriers, with other cargoes potentially facing longer delays.

Naval forces must certify safe corridors and war-risk insurers need to reinstate coverage before vessels can move. Underwriters will look for evidence of a stable operating environment, including confirmed mine clearance and no renewed escalation, according to Sharpe. Tufton managing director Nikos Petrakakos said mine-clearance could take a few weeks, though once certainty is achieved the process might be completed in less than a week.

Goldman Sachs cut its Brent price forecast to $80 a barrel for the fourth quarter of 2026 after the deal was announced, reflecting expectations of a stronger supply recovery. Nonetheless, analysts say that while an initial spike in traffic is possible, a return to normal throughput will depend on coordinated actions by authorities, insurers and shipping companies.