Analysts warn of liquidity strain as SpaceX IPO targets $75 billion valuation

SpaceX is set to price its initial public offering on Thursday, with shares expected to begin trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX on Friday. The company aims to raise at least $75 billion by selling more than 555 million shares at $135 each, which would value the firm at over $1.75 trillion; underwriters may increase proceeds to $85.7 billion if additional allotments are exercised.

Greg Boutle, head of U.S. equity derivative strategy at BNP Paribas, noted that the scale of the offering could create liquidity challenges. > “We think many of the standalone SpaceX flows might be digestible. The problem is that many of these flows are potentially same‑way and additive,” he wrote. > “With the SpaceX free float reported to be close to $75 bn on IPO, it’s easy to see how $30 bn of passive buying, a retail investor chase, and levered ETF and option flows collectively could quickly become challenging for the stock’s liquidity. If all are chasing to buy (or sell) at the same time, the risk of price dislocation becomes much greater.”

Boutle warned that retail investors, who have shown “FOMO‑style, rally‑chasing” behavior this year, may need to sell other holdings to fund purchases of the new shares. He estimated that retail and passive investors could sell roughly $50 billion of other stocks to raise cash, with the possibility of larger outflows if the IPO performs strongly. The timing coincides with the end of the second quarter, when more than $100 billion of unrelated stock sales were already anticipated.

The offering follows recent adjustments to Nasdaq 100 rules that could increase passive fund demand for SpaceX, while S&P Dow Jones has not altered its criteria for inclusion in the S&P 500. Analysts also highlighted broader market context, noting that other large technology firms, including Alphabet and several AI companies, are planning secondary offerings or IPOs, potentially adding further supply pressure.