JPMorgan analyst projects most Tesla robotaxi revenue to come from company-owned fleet

JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta circulated a research note projecting Tesla’s robotaxi revenue could reach approximately $320 billion by 2035. The analysis estimates that nearly all of this amount, about $314 billion, would be generated by a fleet owned and operated by Tesla, while revenue from a network of privately owned vehicles would be limited to roughly $5 billion.

The note suggests the robotaxi model will resemble a capital-intensive mobility operator similar to Waymo, rather than an asset-light platform that shares earnings with individual car owners. Tesla’s management echoed this vertically integrated approach during its second-quarter 2026 earnings call, with CEO Elon Musk stating the company expects to be vertically integrated in robotaxi operations as it is in other business areas.

Tesla reported second-quarter FY2026 revenue of $28.24 billion, a 25.5% year-over-year increase, while non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.33 fell short of the $0.54 consensus estimate. The robotaxi service now operates in seven U.S. metropolitan areas and has 1.48 million active Full Self-Driving subscriptions, up 56% from the prior year. Production of the Cybercab has begun at Gigafactory Texas, and chief financial officer Vaibhav Taneja indicated capital expenditures for 2026 will exceed $25 billion to support fleet expansion.

Tesla’s share price has fallen 18.74% year-to-date but risen 11.58% over the past month, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 152. Analysts note that operating margins contracted to 1.4% and free cash flow turned negative at $1.09 billion, reflecting the early impact of the investment cycle modeled by Gupta. The research emphasizes that the long-term revenue potential hinges on rapid scaling of Cybercab production, cost reductions, and broader regulatory approvals for unsupervised operation.