GLP-1 weight-loss drugs reshape U.S. health-care economics
Research shows that GLP-1 medications such as Wegovy and Zepbound are reducing bariatric surgery volumes, improving cardiovascular outcomes and prompting shifts in payer coverage.
New analysis by Wells Fargo indicates that GLP-1 based weight-loss drugs are altering the financial landscape of American health care. The medications are associated with a decline in bariatric surgeries and a rise in preventive treatment of obesity, which could change hospital revenue streams.
A 2026 study published in JAMA reported a 34% drop in bariatric operations between 2022 and 2024, while prescriptions for GLP-1 drugs grew 140% in the same period. The American Society for Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery is preparing its own data on the trend, and its president, Dr. Joe Northup, noted that some patients return for surgery after trying the drugs for several months.
Clinical evidence also links semaglutide, sold as Ozempic and Wegovy, to a 20% reduction in major adverse cardiovascular events among overweight or obese adults without diabetes. A June study in the Journal of the American Heart Association found lower rates of stroke, venous and pulmonary clots, and other cardiac events in GLP-1 users with obesity and autoimmune conditions.
"I can attest to the fact that we see this in clinical practice," said Dr. Fatima Cody Stanford, an obesity-medicine specialist at Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School.
Researchers are still evaluating how weight loss may affect demand for joint-replacement surgeries, with possible opposing effects on eligibility and wear-and-tear.
While a 2024 JAMA Network Open analysis linked weight loss to reduced overall health-care spending, the savings depend on patient access to the drugs. Coverage remains uneven: Medicare has begun reimbursing GLP-1s for seniors, but some large employers, including Starbucks, are ending benefits for these medications. A Mercer survey found that 6% of big employers plan to drop coverage in 2026, with another 5% slated for 2027.
Drug makers are developing next-generation agents; Eli Lilly reported that its experimental compound retatrutide achieved 19%-28% weight loss in trials, comparable to surgical outcomes. Goldman Sachs projects global sales of weight-loss drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, surpassing oncology products.
"For those patients who lose coverage and weren't able to afford out-of-pocket options, we're seeing weight gain and the reemergence of cardio-metabolic diseases that had gone into remission," Stanford added, describing the impact of reduced insurance benefits.