Lula maintains narrow lead over Flavio Bolsonaro in latest poll
A new Quaest poll shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 43% against Flávio Bolsonaro's 40% in a simulated runoff, narrowing the gap from earlier surveys.
A recent survey by the Brazilian polling firm Quaest indicates that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva would receive 43% of the vote in a simulated second-round contest, while right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro would obtain 40%. The poll’s two-point margin of error means the race is effectively a statistical tie.
The figures represent a contraction from an earlier Quaest poll released on August 5, which showed Lula ahead by five points (44% to 39%). In a first-round scenario, Lula leads with 38% compared with Bolsonaro’s 31%, while other candidates trail in single digits.
Under Brazil’s electoral system, a runoff is triggered if no candidate secures more than half of the valid votes in the first round. Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, has become the leading figure for the right after his father was barred from running following a court ruling on abuse of power.
Lula launched his re-election campaign on August 2, emphasizing the defense of Brazil’s sovereignty and the protection of its mineral resources. > "I want to be prepared, so that no one invades this country," he told a Workers’ Party convention in São Paulo. He also warned that foreign powers would not gain access to Brazil’s rare-earth reserves without respecting national sovereignty.
The poll, conducted between August 10 and 13 with a sample of 2,004 respondents, was commissioned by media group Globo. With the election two months away, the data suggest a competitive contest, though Lula retains a modest structural advantage.