Lula holds narrow lead over Flavio Bolsonaro in latest poll
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A Datafolha survey shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by two points in a simulated runoff, a margin within the poll's error range.
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva maintains a slight advantage over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a potential runoff for Brazil's October presidential election, according to a Datafolha poll released Thursday. The survey, conducted with 2,002 respondents between September 22 and 23, gave Lula 47% and Bolsonaro 45% in a head-to-head scenario, a two-point gap that falls within the poll's 2-percentage-point margin of error, indicating a technical tie.
In a first-round projection, Lula leads with 40% of the vote, followed by Bolsonaro at 36%, with smaller shares for candidates Augusto Cury (5%), Ronaldo Caiado (4%) and Renan Santos (3%). The poll follows a previous Datafolha poll that showed Lula at 46% and Bolsonaro at 44%.
Other recent surveys show comparable results: a Quaest poll gave Bolsonaro a 42% lead over Lula's 41% in a runoff, while a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll placed Lula at 46% against Bolsonaro's 45%.
If no candidate surpasses 50% in the first round, the top two contenders will face a runoff. Bolsonaro is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a prison sentence for attempting to overturn his 2022 election loss to Lula.