Gold slips while silver gains ahead of U.S. inflation reports

Spot gold edged lower to about $4,329 an ounce, down 0.28%, while spot silver rose 0.55% to $63.80 an ounce in early U.S. trading on Monday. The moves follow a rally sparked by last week’s weaker-than-expected July payroll report, which lowered the market-implied probability of a September Federal Reserve rate hike to roughly 44%.

Traders are now focused on upcoming inflation data, with the consumer price index due Wednesday, the producer price index Thursday and retail sales Friday. The U.S. dollar has firmed and Treasury yields are drifting back toward the 4.6% level, adding caution to the market.

Geopolitical tension around the Strait of Hormuz continues to influence oil prices and safe-haven demand. Iran has said a full reopening of the waterway depends on U.S. negotiations, while talks with Oman proceed.

Global equity markets were mixed overnight: Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 2.1%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.1% and Germany’s DAX added 0.3%, while France’s CAC 40 slipped and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 fell 0.3%. U.S. stock-index futures were largely unchanged after the S&P 500 closed at a record 7,757.64.

Crude oil prices remained firm, with WTI around $78.72 a barrel and Brent near $84.23. The dollar index stayed strong and the 10-year Treasury yield hovered near 4.6%.

Technical analysis suggests gold bulls aim to retake the 52-week moving average at $4,349.82 and face resistance near $4,368, while bears look for a break below $4,299. Silver bulls target a move above $65.21, with resistance at $67, and bears watch for a decline below $63.10.