Gold and Silver Rise as Iran-U.S. Talks Ease Oil Prices and Inflation Concerns

Spot gold and silver prices climbed in early U.S. trading on Monday, recovering from sharp losses on Friday. The rally was helped by diplomatic talks involving Iran and the United States that pushed crude oil prices lower and eased some inflation worries ahead of a busy week of U.S. economic data releases and midterm elections. Gold was quoted near $3,945.70 an ounce, up about 1.8%, while silver traded around $50.94 an ounce, up roughly 3.7%.

Market participants are still weighing the likelihood of another Federal Reserve rate increase in December, after the central bank left its benchmark range unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% last week. Interest-rate futures indicate about a 75% probability of a further hike before year-end, reflecting strong economic growth and persistent underlying inflation, though softer employment costs and a recent equity-market selloff provide counterpoints.

Iran announced it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume nuclear talks with Washington within two days, provided the United States lifts the naval blockade of Iranian ports, eases sanctions on Iranian oil exports, and agrees to broader cease-fire arrangements. Washington has not accepted the proposal, and differences remain over sanctions relief and maritime security. The development reduced immediate concerns about a major military escalation, but the region remains fragile, with recent attacks on commercial vessels and ongoing tensions involving Houthi forces.

Crude oil prices fell more than 4% in early Monday trading, with Brent near $108.55 a barrel and WTI below $100. The decline eased worries that higher energy costs could reinforce inflation and prompt additional Fed tightening. Lower yields, a softer dollar and reduced oil prices created a more favorable backdrop for gold, though the prospect of further rate hikes continues to limit upside potential. Silver benefited from improved sentiment but remains sensitive to industrial demand and broader risk appetite.

Global equity markets were mixed to firmer before the U.S. open, as lower oil prices provided some relief from inflation and corporate-cost concerns. S&P 500 futures rose about 0.5%, recovering part of Friday’s decline, while investors prepared for upcoming earnings reports and the midterm elections. The U.S. dollar index slipped to around 101.5 and the 10-year Treasury yield hovered near 4.93%.

Technical analysts note that gold’s next resistance lies between $3,978 and $4,035, with a longer-term target near $4,086, while support is seen around $3,817. For silver, resistance is projected between $54.72 and $59.00, with a longer-term aim near $61, and support near $49.04.