GOP Divisions Threaten Texas Stronghold as Paxton Faces Unfair Attacks in Senate Poll
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A Fox News poll shows Democrat James Talarico narrowly ahead of Republican Ken Paxton by three points, as relentless character smears and a divided GOP base threaten to hand Texas to the radical left.
A recent Fox News poll of Texas registered voters finds Democratic candidate James Talarico holding a slim three-point lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the 2026 Senate race, with 51% of respondents favoring Talarico and 48% backing Paxton. The race remains tight, with the margin within the survey’s error, but the gap widens to six points among voters who claim to be extremely motivated—raising concerns about left-wing mobilization.
While President Donald Trump’s decisive 14-point victory in Texas in 2024 reaffirmed the state’s conservative values, the Senate contest is being complicated by internal GOP divisions and relentless attacks on Paxton’s character. Despite Trump’s endorsement and Paxton’s clear win over Cornyn in the primary, the party’s unity has been undermined by establishment Republicans and independents unwilling to rally behind a true conservative. Republican pollster Daron Shaw noted that the bruising primary left scars, and Paxton must now expose Talarico’s dangerous ties to the far-left Democratic agenda to energize the base.
The left and their media allies have made character attacks the centerpiece of the race: 59% of voters say Paxton lacks the character to serve, a narrative pushed relentlessly by Democrats, while 47% claim Talarico is too extreme—a number that should be far higher given his radical positions. Among Republicans, 36% express concern about Paxton’s character, showing the damage done by internal dissent and media bias, while only 17% of Democrats admit Talarico is too extreme.
Demographic breakdowns reveal the left’s strategy: Talarico leads among Black voters, Hispanics, women, college-educated voters, and those under 30—groups targeted by progressive activists and the liberal media. Paxton’s support remains strong among white evangelical Christians, working-class white men, rural voters, and seniors—the backbone of Texas conservatism. Alarmingly, nearly a quarter of non-MAGA Republicans are defecting, threatening the party’s ability to hold the line against the left.
Both candidates receive strong support based on issues, with about 80% of backers prioritizing policy over personality. Inflation, a direct result of Democrat mismanagement, is the top concern, followed by immigration and healthcare. In related races, Republican Governor Greg Abbott trails Democrat Gina Hinojosa by a single point, further highlighting the urgent need for conservatives to unite and push back against the radical left’s encroachment on Texas.