Texas Senate Race Tightens as Talarico's Lead Over Paxton Narrows in Latest Polls
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Two recent Texas polls show Democratic Rep. James Talarico's advantage over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton shrinking to a single point, while the share of undecided voters has fallen.
Two new surveys released this week indicate that Democratic state Rep. James Talarico's lead over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race has narrowed to one percentage point. The Texas Public Opinion Research poll, conducted Sep. 19-22 among 1,007 likely voters, gave Talarico 49% and Paxton 44%, a drop from a five-point margin in the August poll. The same poll reported that undecided voters fell from 7% to 3% and that Libertarian candidate Ted Brown gained two points.
A separate Texas Southern University poll of 1,800 likely voters taken Sep. 15-19 showed Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 46%, with Brown at 3%. This reflects a one-point decline from the university's July poll, which had Talarico ahead 47% to 45%.
Other recent polls also place Talarico ahead, though many are within their margins of error. An Emerson College poll (Sep. 12-14) gave Talarico a 1-point lead, an AARP poll (Aug. 30-Sep. 1) a 4-point lead, and a YouGov/Univision poll (Aug. 27-Sep. 4) a 5-point lead.
During the Texas Tribune Festival, Talarico urged Paxton to debate on Fox News, criticizing the attorney general for avoiding debates.
Federal Election Commission data through June 30 show Talarico's campaign has raised about $31.9 million, compared with Paxton's $9.1 million. Out-of-state contributions account for 45% of Talarico's donations, with California as the top source, while 17.1% of Paxton's funds come from outside Texas.