Talarico pulls ahead of Paxton in latest Texas Senate poll
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A September poll shows Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 50% to 45% in the Texas Senate race, with undecided Republican voters remaining a factor.
A new SoCal Strategies poll released on Sept. 13 indicates that Democrat James Talarico has a five-point lead over Republican incumbent Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate contest, with 50% of likely voters supporting Talarico and 45% backing Paxton. The survey of 649 likely voters was conducted on Sept. 12-13 and marks a reversal from the firm’s June poll, which had Paxton ahead by two points.
The poll shows Talarico gaining ground among independents, Hispanics and voters aged 18-29, while also attracting about 12% of Republican respondents. Paxton retains a lead among white voters but faces a higher share of undecided Republicans; 6% of respondents who supported Donald Trump in 2024 remain undecided in the Senate race, compared with only 1% of those who voted for Kamala Harris.
"To have a chance, Paxton will need to win nearly all of these voters and peel back a substantial portion of the 12% of Republicans who say they would vote for Talarico if the election were held today," the poll analysis said.
Other recent surveys show similar trends. An AARP poll on Sept. 10 gave Talarico a 48%-44% lead, and an N+ Univision poll on Sept. 9 showed a 48%-43% advantage. Earlier August polls had the race within single digits, with leads shifting between the two candidates.
The race heads toward the Nov. 3 election as both campaigns seek to solidify support among undecided voters.