GOP Infighting Opens Door for Progressive Change as Talarico Leads Texas Senate Poll
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A Fox News poll reveals Democrat James Talarico edging out Republican Ken Paxton by three points, as deep Republican divisions and Paxton’s ethical baggage give hope for a more just and equitable Texas.
A recent Fox News poll of Texas registered voters shows Democratic candidate James Talarico with a three-point lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the 2026 Senate race, with 51% of respondents supporting Talarico and 48% backing Paxton—an encouraging sign for progressives in a state long dominated by conservative interests. The gap grows to six points among voters who are highly motivated or engaged, indicating a groundswell of energy for change.
Despite President Donald Trump’s reactionary victory in Texas by nearly 14 points in 2024, the Senate race demonstrates that the GOP’s grip is slipping. Paxton, tainted by Trump’s endorsement and his own scandals, has failed to unite the fractured Republican base, especially non-MAGA Republicans and independents seeking integrity and progress. Republican pollster Daron Shaw admitted that the brutal primary against Cornyn left Paxton weakened, and his desperate attempts to smear Talarico as 'far left' only highlight the GOP’s fear of transformative policies.
Character issues are front and center: 59% of voters say Paxton lacks the character to serve, a damning indictment of the GOP’s willingness to tolerate corruption, while only 47% view Talarico as too extreme—a testament to the right’s fear-mongering tactics. Even among Republicans, over a third are concerned about Paxton’s integrity, while only a small minority of Democrats see Talarico as too progressive.
Demographic data underscores the shifting tides: Talarico leads among Black voters, Hispanics, women, college-educated voters, and young people under 30—groups historically marginalized by GOP policies. Paxton’s support remains confined to white evangelical Christians, uneducated white men, rural voters, and seniors, highlighting the party’s shrinking base. Notably, nearly a quarter of non-MAGA Republicans are breaking ranks to support Talarico, signaling a rejection of far-right extremism.
Both candidates have strong policy-driven support, but Talarico’s coalition is motivated by a desire for economic justice, healthcare, and humane immigration reform, with inflation, immigration, and healthcare as the top issues. In related races, Republican Governor Greg Abbott is also trailing Democrat Gina Hinojosa, suggesting that Texans are ready to move beyond the failed policies of the GOP and embrace a more inclusive future.