GOP divisions give Democratic challenger a narrow lead in Texas Senate poll
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A Fox News poll shows Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton by three points, with character concerns and a split GOP contributing to the gap.
A recent Fox News poll of Texas registered voters finds Democratic candidate James Talarico holding a three-point lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the 2026 Senate race, with 51% of respondents favoring Talarico and 48% backing Paxton, within the survey’s margin of error. The gap widens to six points among voters who say they are extremely motivated or interested in the midterms.
While President Donald Trump carried Texas by nearly 14 points in the 2024 presidential election, the Senate contest appears less certain. Paxton, who received Trump’s endorsement in the GOP primary, has struggled to unite non-MAGA Republicans and independents. "Although Paxton dominated Cornyn in the GOP primary, that bruising contest left scars," said Republican pollster Daron Shaw. He added that Paxton must work to tie Talarico to the Democratic Party’s far left to improve his standing.
Character concerns dominate the race: 59% of voters say Paxton lacks the character to serve, compared with 47% who view Talarico as too extreme. The perception gap is larger among Republicans, with 36% worried about Paxton’s character versus 17% of Democrats who think Talarico is too extreme.
Demographic breakdowns show Talarico leading among Black voters, Hispanics, women, college-educated voters and those under 30, while Paxton retains support from white evangelical Christians, white men without a college degree, rural voters and seniors. About a quarter of non-MAGA Republicans (24%) also favor Talarico.
Both candidates receive strong issue-based support, with roughly 80% of their backers saying policy positions matter more than personal traits. Inflation emerges as the top issue for voters, followed by immigration and healthcare.
In related statewide races, incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott trails Democrat Gina Hinojosa by a single point, and both races reflect similar patterns of partisan enthusiasm and crossover voting.