SpaceX Falcon 9 Upper Stage Predicted to Impact Moon on Aug. 5, 2026
Astronomers expect the abandoned upper stage of a Falcon 9 rocket to strike the Moon near Einstein crater on Aug. 5, releasing kinetic energy equivalent to about 2.8 t of TNT.
The upper stage of a Falcon 9 launch vehicle, which was used to boost the Firefly Blue Ghost-1 and ispace Hakuto-R Resilience landers toward the Moon last year, is on a collision course with the lunar surface. According to a recent study, the stage will impact near the western edge of the Moon’s Einstein crater on Aug. 5, 2026, delivering roughly 11.8 gigajoules of kinetic energy and a momentum of 9.7 meganewtons.
Gregory Radisic, a fellow at the Centre for Space, Cyberspace and Data Law at Bond University, said the stage “lacked the fuel to return to Earth or move into deep space” and remained in an unstable orbit until lunar gravity set it on a collision path. Modelling suggests the impact will create a small crater, with an ejecta blanket extending about 70 m in diameter and particles traveling up to 1 km from the site.
The event may be observable from Earth with telescopes, particularly from South America and low-mid-latitude North America at around 06:35 UTC, though the relatively low impact velocity (~2 km/s) could make the flash dimmer than natural meteoroid impacts. Researchers note that the known mass and trajectory of the debris provide a valuable opportunity to calibrate flash-brightness measurements and study plume dynamics, which could inform future assessments of hazards to lunar infrastructure.
The impact follows previous intentional artificial collisions, such as NASA’s LCROSS mission in 2009, which helped confirm the presence of water ice in permanently shadowed craters. Scientists say the upcoming event will add data for understanding how space debris interacts with the lunar environment as orbital traffic continues to increase.