Analysts cite lack of post-war planning and limited objectives as reasons U.S. wars in the Middle East fall short
Experts argue that U.S. reliance on military force without adequate diplomatic strategy and realistic goals has hindered political success in Afghanistan, Iraq and the ongoing conflict with Iran.
The United States has engaged in three major wars in the Middle East over the past 25 years, yet each conflict has failed to achieve its stated political objectives. In Afghanistan, the Taliban have regained control; Iraq remains unstable despite a nominally improved security situation; and Iran’s regime continues to hold power as the war there remains unresolved.
"We generally do a pretty good job of the breaking things and killing people at the inception of the wars," said Peter Bergen, author of All The Presidents' Wars and a national-security analyst. He added that the United States "tends to not plan for the day after — the peace that follows the war."
Middle-East analyst Paul Salem of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said the United States often expects swift, low-cost victories while relying heavily on military power rather than diplomatic solutions. "The U.S. has an imperial appetite, but a tourist's approach to it," he said, noting that the region lacks stable institutions that can be reshaped by short-term interventions.
Former Army lieutenant general Douglas Lute, who served as a "war czar" under multiple presidents, warned that launching a bombing campaign with maximalist goals such as regime change is unlikely to succeed without ground forces. "When we launch only a bombing campaign but we retain maximalist goals, like regime change, you don't have any prospect for success unless you're just lucky," he said.
Analysts also pointed to the growing effectiveness of asymmetric tactics. In Afghanistan and Iraq, insurgents used roadside bombs and suicide attacks, while Iran has employed low-cost drones to challenge U.S. naval dominance in the Strait of Hormuz. Harvard professor Stephen Walt noted that warfare is shifting in favor of local defenders even against technologically superior forces.
The only conflict cited as a clear success was the 1991 Gulf War, where limited objectives—liberating Kuwait—were achieved through a brief, coordinated air and ground campaign supported by a broad international coalition, according to Lute.
Looking ahead, Salem cautioned that even if the current Iran conflict ends, the United States retains the capability to strike again, and Iran could continue to impose economic costs on the global system.