England secures near-certain World Cup knockout spot after 4-1 win over Croatia
England's 4-1 victory over Croatia in Dallas puts them top of Group L and gives them over a 99% chance of advancing to the knockout stage.
England moved to the top of Group L with a 4-1 win over Croatia at AT&T Stadium in Dallas, a result that gives them a better than 99% probability of reaching the round of 32, according to a projection model. Harry Kane converted a retaken penalty and later headed in from a corner, while Jude Bellingham scored the second goal after a run down the right flank. Substitute Marcus Rashford added a fourth goal in the second half. Croatia equalised twice, first through Martin Baturina and then Petar Musa, before England pulled ahead again.
The victory means England will likely face a third-placed team from Groups E, H, I, J or K in their first knockout match in Atlanta on July 1, provided they win the group. Coach Thomas Tuchel’s side will next meet Ghana and Panama in the group stage.
Assistant coach Anthony Barry noted that England displayed “nervous energy” and “fearful patterns” in the first half, but Bellingham’s goal helped shift the momentum. The match also featured a retaken penalty after goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic moved off his line, leading to Kane’s successful second attempt.
Analysts highlighted the importance of big-moment players, citing Bellingham’s decisive finish and his defensive contributions later in the game. They also discussed the tactical use of an outswinging corner that produced Kane’s header, a set-piece routine previously employed by England.
While England’s defense showed vulnerabilities early on, the team tightened after the break, and the win positions them strongly to advance from the group.