Democrats Lead Generic Congressional Ballot by Five Points in New NBC News Poll
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A recent NBC News poll shows Democrats holding a five-point advantage over Republicans for control of Congress, while President Trump’s approval rating falls to a low of 42% among registered voters.
A national poll commissioned by the nonprofit More Perfect indicates that 49% of registered voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, compared with 44% favoring Republicans, giving Democrats a five-point lead on the generic ballot. The survey, conducted May 29-June 7 with 2,400 respondents, found independents also lean Democratic by 12 points, and majorities of Black, Latino, younger, and college-educated voters support the party. Republicans retain advantages among men, white voters and those without a college degree.
The Democratic margin mirrors a similar poll from March, which showed a six-point lead, and is narrower than the 10-point advantage recorded in June 2018. "These are rocky numbers for Republicans, but they are not catastrophic," said Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies. Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates added that Democrats are in a "really good position, despite redistricting, to win seats."
Trump’s approval rating has slipped to 42% among registered voters, the lowest point of his second term in NBC News surveys, with 39% approval among all adults. Two-thirds of independents disapprove of his performance, and disapproval is especially high among Latino voters (64%) and those aged 18-29 (77%). Among Republicans, 82% still approve of Trump, though that figure has declined from 88% in March.
The poll also captured broader public sentiment: 56% of registered voters believe the United States’ best years are behind it, and nearly 80% say the American Dream is harder to achieve than a generation ago. Confidence in federal institutions remains low, with half of respondents expressing little or no confidence in the federal government and 58% lacking confidence in Congress.
The findings come as Democrats need to net only three House seats to secure a majority, while the Senate remains a tougher target, requiring four additional seats amid states Trump won by double digits in 2024.