Democrats hold 9-point advantage in congressional preference poll as Trump approval drops to 39%
Select a version of the text written from a presumed ideological perspective. This is not the original text, but a hypothetical version — how someone with that viewpoint might have phrased it. Tapping the current version again will return to the original or select cleaned version.
NBC News' polling averages show Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by nine points, while President Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to 39% among likely voters.
NBC News' latest polling averages indicate that 52% of likely voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress compared with 43% for Republicans, giving Democrats a nine-percentage-point lead. The same averages place President Donald Trump's approval at 39%, with 59% disapproving his performance, down from an initial 50% approval at the start of his second term.
The shift toward Democrats is driven largely by independent voters, who now favor the Democratic party by 16 points, according to the aggregated data. Among independents, approval of Trump has fallen to 26%, while his support among Republicans remains high at 79% but shows a slight decline.
NBC News calculates its averages by weighting all publicly available polls that meet methodological standards, adjusting results from surveys of all adults, registered voters, and likely voters to a common scale. The organization notes that likely-voter polls tend to show higher vote shares for both parties because respondents have usually formed a voting intention.
Analysts caution that poll averages do not guarantee election outcomes, especially as Republicans seek to mobilize their base in key battleground districts that Trump won in 2024.