Oil Flow Through Blocked Strait of Hormuz Remains Unclear as Prices Stay Stable
Analysts say the amount of oil that has passed the closed Strait of Hormuz is difficult to verify, and existing stockpiles have kept crude prices from rising sharply.
President Donald Trump recently asserted that a covert U.S. operation moved 100 million barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz while the waterway was blocked. Industry experts say the figure cannot be independently confirmed because much of the traffic occurs without AIS transponders, a practice known as "dark trade."
Matt Stanley, head of market engagement at commodity-intelligence firm Kpler, noted that pre-conflict flows averaged about 20 million barrels per day, so the claimed volume would represent only a few days’ worth of normal traffic stretched over a month. He added that the scale of any such movement remains unknown.
Data from the World Trade Organization show a 95 % drop in crude shipments from Gulf ports and a 99 % decline in LNG carrier movements, prompting the International Energy Agency to label the disruption the largest in oil-market history. Despite this, Brent crude is trading around $87.55 a barrel, near the lowest level since before the conflict began.
Analysts attribute the price stability to large strategic reserves. China, for example, holds roughly 1.3 billion barrels and is drawing down about one million barrels per day, while demand in the country fell from 12.5 million barrels per day in December to about 7 million barrels per day in the spring. The United States, Brazil and Canada have also increased supplies.
"The oil market responded to this outage significantly well in terms of cutting parts of demand," said Iman Nasseri, managing director for the Middle East at FGE NexantECA. However, several analysts warn that inventories are approaching operationally critical levels and that the United States, acting as a swing producer, may need to prioritize domestic consumption later in the year.
Stanley cautioned that expectations of a quick resolution are unrealistic, noting that the market hopes for a reopening by mid-August, but that such a timeline is uncertain. Global oil supply fell by 10.1 million barrels per day in March, with OPEC+ output down 9.4 million barrels per day, leaving the timing and magnitude of any return to normal flows unclear.
