Goldman Sachs Warns of Imminent Oil Price Surge Amid Strait of Hormuz Disruptions

Goldman Sachs has projected that global oil prices may surpass $100 per barrel in the coming days, potentially reaching $150 by month's end, if the severe disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue. The bank noted that oil exports through this critical passage have declined more than initially anticipated following recent U.S.-Israeli military actions in Iran.

The Strait of Hormuz, a vital conduit linking major oil producers to global markets, has seen oil shipments drop to just 10% of typical levels, below Goldman Sachs' earlier estimate of 15%. This reduction is attributed to Iran's effective blockade of tankers navigating the narrow waterway.

Goldman Sachs highlighted that the current impact is significantly greater than the peak disruption to Russian oil production in April 2022, which had previously driven oil prices to $110 per barrel. The bank stated that, based on recent data and the magnitude of the shock, oil prices are likely to exceed $100 next week if no solutions emerge.

The international oil benchmark has already risen above $90 per barrel, marking the highest weekly gains since the COVID-19 pandemic six years ago. This includes a $10 increase on Friday alone. Further escalation is anticipated, with U.S. crude trading at over $94 per barrel in weekend markets, indicating a potential rise when financial markets reopen.

The ongoing conflict has led to a more than 50% increase in oil prices this year, starting from approximately $60 per barrel at the beginning of 2026. Prices had been climbing in January and February, with a sharp acceleration following the recent U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran.

Concerns over a global oil shortage were intensified by Qatar's energy minister, who predicted that if the conflict continues, all Gulf energy exporters may be forced to halt production within weeks, potentially driving oil prices to $150 per barrel. Oil storage facilities in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait are nearing capacity, which could necessitate shutting down major oilfields if crude cannot be exported through the Strait of Hormuz.

Hundreds of tankers attempting to navigate the strait have been halted after Iran's Revolutionary Guards threatened to target any vessel using the trade route, which carries a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas. Analysts warn that Middle Eastern oil and gas exports will not resume until shipping companies and insurers feel sufficiently safe from threats posed by Iranian military forces.

The White House has proposed measures such as rerouting Saudi crude via the Red Sea, tapping into emergency U.S. crude reserves, or extending government-backed insurance to shipping companies. However, experts caution that these steps may not be sufficient to offset the loss of 20 million barrels of oil per day.