Russia Increases Drone Attacks on Ukraine Amid Evolving Production and Calls for Tougher Sanctions

Russia has escalated its missile and drone strikes against Ukraine in recent weeks, marking some of the largest attacks since the conflict began in February 2022. Despite ongoing international sanctions, Russia continues to deploy large numbers of drones, prompting concerns about the origins and sustainability of its arsenal.

Military technology expert Fabian Hoffmann of the University of Oslo explained that Russia's drones are relatively simple to manufacture, often constructed from wood and lightweight materials, with the main production challenge being the acquisition of conventional explosives. Hoffmann noted that while these drones are not of the same quality as Western military equipment, they are "good enough" for Russia's purposes.

Initially, Russia imported Shahed drones from Iran and later established licensed production agreements, with Iranian engineers helping to set up manufacturing facilities in Russia. Over time, Russia has developed its own version, the Geran-2, making several adaptations, including changes to make them harder to detect at night. Hoffmann stated, "Russia is now the Shahed expert, even though the drone comes originally from Iran."

The primary aim of these drones is to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses, which must use costly interceptors to counter the threat. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that dozens of Russian drones were shot down recently and said Ukraine is increasing its own interceptor drone capabilities. He also called for tougher international sanctions, particularly targeting Russian oil revenues.

The United States has responded by accelerating its own drone production, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth issuing orders to streamline procurement and deployment. However, Hoffmann cautioned that simply relying on missile defenses is insufficient, as Russia is expanding its offensive capabilities more rapidly and at lower cost.

Experts have also highlighted the role of third countries, such as Malaysia and Kyrgyzstan, in supplying components to Russia, suggesting that broader sanctions could disrupt these supply chains but may also have negative effects on Western economies. Hoffmann remarked, "Sanctions against Russia are hurting us [in the West] to some extent. But if you start sanctioning every other country that does business with Russia, it would hurt us even more."

Zelenskyy reiterated his call for stronger measures, emphasizing the need for "biting sanctions against oil," which he described as a key source of funding for Russia's military operations.