Brazil's Second-Crop Corn Ethanol: A Sustainable Aviation Fuel Solution

A recent study suggests that increasing ethanol production from Brazil's second-crop corn could bolster sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) development while mitigating land-use changes and greenhouse gas emissions. Conducted by Agroicone in collaboration with researchers from Iowa State University, Universidad de la República, and Indiana University Indianapolis, the study was published in Agricultural Economics.

The research examines the potential impacts of rising demand for corn ethanol in Brazil, driven in part by emerging SAF markets, on global agricultural markets, land use, and carbon emissions. Utilizing a global agricultural trade model combined with a land-use greenhouse gas accounting framework, the study evaluates various scenarios of ethanol expansion and supply responses in Brazil.

Findings indicate that when corn production expands through Brazil's double-cropping system—where corn is planted after soybeans on the same land within the same year—additional ethanol supply can be achieved primarily through agricultural intensification rather than cropland expansion. This approach significantly reduces pressure for new land conversion compared to scenarios requiring additional agricultural land.

Brazil's second-crop corn system already accounts for most of the country's corn production, enabling rapid output growth without proportional increases in cultivated area. Incorporating this production system into the economic modeling used in the study shows a substantial drop in land-use change associated with ethanol production in Brazil—from approximately 40,000 hectares per billion liters of ethanol to about 7,000 hectares.

The analysis also suggests that ethanol produced from second-crop corn can achieve very low or even negative lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions, depending on supply responses and land-use dynamics. These results are influenced by factors such as the supply elasticity of corn, the use of cropland already cultivated within the same year, the use of renewable energy sources in ethanol processing, and the production of corn co-products that substitute for soybean meal in animal feed markets.

"Brazil's double-cropping system allows farmers to increase corn production without expanding cropland. When this agricultural reality is properly incorporated into economic models, the land-use impacts of biofuel expansion can be substantially lower than previously estimated," said Luciane Chiodi Bachion, co-author of the study and researcher at Agroicone.

However, the study emphasizes that global outcomes depend heavily on how markets respond to rising ethanol demand. If Brazil can efficiently expand second-crop corn production, global land-use change may remain limited or even decline.

The findings highlight the importance of incorporating Brazil's double-cropping agricultural system into global models used to assess the environmental impacts of biofuels. They also underscore the need for policies that promote sustainable agricultural intensification while preventing deforestation.

Overall, the research suggests that Brazil's second-crop corn has the potential to become a strategic feedstock for sustainable aviation fuel, supporting climate mitigation goals while maintaining agricultural productivity and global food security.