NASA's Van Allen Probe A Reenters Earth's Atmosphere Ahead of Schedule

NASA's Van Allen Probe A, a 1,323-pound spacecraft launched in 2012 to study Earth's radiation belts, is expected to reenter the atmosphere earlier than initially projected. The U.S. Space Force predicts the reentry will occur around 7:45 p.m. EDT on March 10, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 24 hours. Most of the spacecraft is anticipated to burn up during reentry, though some components may survive. The risk to individuals on the ground is considered low, approximately 1 in 4,200.

Originally designed for a two-year mission, the Van Allen Probes A and B provided nearly seven years of data on Earth's radiation belts. The mission concluded in 2019 when the spacecraft exhausted their fuel. Initial calculations estimated Probe A's reentry in 2034; however, heightened solar activity during the current solar cycle has increased atmospheric drag, accelerating the reentry timeline.

NASA has granted a waiver for this reentry, as the risk exceeds the agency's standard threshold of 1 in 10,000 for uncontrolled reentries. A NASA spokesperson stated, "Due to late-stage design changes, the potential risk of uncontrolled reentry increased."

The Van Allen Probes, managed by the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, made significant discoveries, including the detection of a transient third radiation belt during periods of intense solar activity.

Van Allen Probe B is projected to reenter the atmosphere no earlier than 2030, with a similar risk profile to the public.