Asteroid 2024 YR4's Potential Lunar Impact in 2032 Could Create Visible Flash

Asteroid 2024 YR4, measuring approximately 200 feet (60 meters) in diameter, was discovered on December 27, 2024. Initial calculations indicated a 3.1% chance of Earth impact in 2032, but subsequent observations have ruled out this possibility. However, NASA now estimates a 4.3% probability that the asteroid could collide with the Moon on December 22, 2032.

A study led by Yifei Jiao, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of California, Santa Cruz, suggests that such an impact would release energy equivalent to 6.5 million tons of TNT, making it the largest lunar impact recorded in modern times. The collision is expected to produce a bright flash, with a magnitude between -2.5 and -3, comparable to Venus in the night sky. This flash could last between 200 and 300 seconds, with at least 10 seconds being bright enough to be reliably noticed.

The predicted impact time is 10:19 a.m. EST (15:19 UTC), making regions where the Moon is visible during that time—such as East Asia, Oceania, Hawaii, and western North America—prime locations for observation. However, with 70% of the Moon illuminated on that day, the flash would be visible to the naked eye only if the asteroid strikes the Moon's unlit region. The chance of this occurring is estimated at 2.85%. Regardless of the impact location, the flash would be detectable by amateur telescopes.

Further observations are planned to refine the asteroid's trajectory and impact probability as 2024 YR4 approaches the inner solar system in the coming years.