Reliance Industries' FY28 outlook hinges on five key growth drivers
Analysts say Reliance Industries' future earnings will depend on sustained oil-to-chemicals profitability, a turnaround in retail, Jio's pricing power, new-energy earnings and expansion of consumer and media businesses.
Reliance Industries Ltd saw its shares jump about 12% after a strong earnings report, but analysts stress that the company's longer-term growth will be judged on the performance of its newer businesses over the next 18 months. The conglomerate posted its strongest-ever quarter for the oil-to-chemicals (O2C) segment, with EBITDA rising 48% sequentially to ₹25,200 crore, driven by higher fuel cracks, better petrochemical margins and flexible crude sourcing. CLSA projects global downstream tightness to persist for two to three quarters and notes Reliance’s guidance of more than $8.5 billion O2C EBITDA for FY27, while Jefferies expects elevated profitability through the winter.
Retail remains a drag, with EBITDA down roughly 10% year-on-year as the business invests in JioMart, dark stores and digital commerce. BofA Securities says offline cash flows are being used to fund this expansion, and CLSA describes FY27 as a “reset year” for the segment, anticipating a material EBITDA rise in the following two years.
Jio added 9.1 million subscribers in the quarter and lifted average revenue per user to ₹219, while telecom EBITDA grew 5% sequentially to a 51.6% margin. Analysts point to a potential 15% mobile tariff increase in December 2026 as a near-term earnings catalyst.
The new-energy portfolio is moving toward revenue generation, with production of HJT solar modules and battery storage ahead of schedule. BofA and CLSA expect new-energy contributions to begin in FY28, shifting the focus from capital expenditure to profitability.
Consumer products and media also add optionality. FMCG revenue rose 60% year-on-year to about ₹8,300 crore, supported by brands such as Campa Cola, while JioStar’s revenue grew 10% on subscription and advertising gains.
Overall, analysts highlight five triggers for FY28: continued O2C strength, retail recovery, Jio pricing power, new-energy earnings and scaling of FMCG and media. While some brokerages project significant upside, others caution that weaker retail performance or a normalization of commodity margins could temper growth.