US Midterm Elections Could Shift Balance of Power in Trump’s Second Term
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Experts say the November 3 midterms will decide whether Democrats can check President Donald Trump’s agenda by gaining control of the House, the Senate, or both.
The United States will hold its midterm elections on Nov. 3, with all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats on the ballot, alongside numerous governorships. Currently, Republicans hold a 218-214 majority in the House and a 53-47 majority in the Senate. Democrats need a net gain of four seats in each chamber to take control.
Nearly 40 million mail-in and early votes have been cast, and Reuters projects that total turnout could exceed 100 million, similar to the 112 million ballots counted in the 2022 midterms.
"For the Republicans, it’s the ability to govern for Trump’s final two years. For the Democrats, it’s the ability to check him," said Elvin Lim, professor of political science at Singapore Management University.
Analysts identify inflation, cost-of-living pressures, immigration policy and the conflict in Iran as key issues influencing voters. Kevin Chen of Nanyang Technological University’s S Rajaratnam School of International Studies noted that these concerns tie directly to household finances.
"The clearest is the power over the budget. It also has the ability to subpoena administration officials to testify under oath," said Associate Professor Chong Ja Ian of the National University of Singapore.
If Democrats win the House, they would control the budget process, subpoena power and impeachment authority, potentially limiting President Trump’s policy moves. Gaining the Senate would also let them block or delay key appointments and national-security nominees.
"A Democrat-controlled House may also push back more forcefully against Trump’s tariff plans, though their procedural nature gives these tariffs more legal backing," Chen added.
Conversely, a Republican victory would preserve the current legislative agenda and allow the administration to continue using executive orders and tariff measures with fewer congressional constraints.
Political scientists stress that, regardless of the outcome, cooperation will remain essential because a 60-vote threshold is required to overcome Senate filibusters. The midterms are also viewed as a barometer of President Trump’s performance, with potential implications for U.S. foreign policy, trade tariffs affecting Asian economies, and the broader stability of the international system.
"Expect subpoenas, investigations into the administration, and hard bargaining over every spending bill, with government shutdowns a real possibility," Lim warned.
Nate Silver’s statistical model gives Democrats a 92.9 % chance of winning the House and a 73.9 % chance of winning the Senate, suggesting a strong but not guaranteed prospect for a Democratic shift in congressional power.