Asia-Pacific watches US midterms, seeks policy shifts amid war and tariffs
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Countries in the Asia-Pacific are closely monitoring the US midterm elections, hoping for changes to trade, tariff and security policies but seeing limited prospects for immediate action.
Governments and businesses across the Asia-Pacific are closely tracking Tuesday’s US midterm elections as they assess the impact of the United States and Israel’s war on Iran and recent tariff measures. Analysts say many regional actors hope for “enormous changes” in US policy during the remainder of President Donald Trump’s term, but few expect swift adjustments even if Democrats gain control of the House and possibly the Senate.
"Of course, everybody is watching," said Steven Okun, trade specialist and chief executive of APAC Advisors, a Singapore-based consulting firm. "It’s great political theatre."
The war on Iran has hit the region hardest outside the Middle East, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz cutting off Gulf oil supplies that many Asian economies depend on. The Philippines, which imports over 90 % of its crude from the Gulf, has been under a national energy emergency since March, while soaring fuel costs have strained foreign-exchange reserves in poorer economies such as Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and East Timor, according to the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies-Yusof Ishak Institute.
Okun noted that a Democratic-controlled Congress is unlikely to force President Trump to end the eight-month conflict. "With Iran, I don’t see [a Democrat-controlled Congress] having much change at all, other than the fact that the war will be investigated and there will be oversight hearings," he told Al Jazeera.
On trade, the administration’s tariffs on roughly 90 countries last year imposed duties of up to 50 %, with Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam and Myanmar facing the steepest rates. After the Supreme Court struck down those tariffs in February, the US shifted to a 10-12.5 % levy on goods from 60 trading partners accused of using forced labour, targeting China, Japan, South Korea and several Southeast Asian nations.
"In some ways, the new Congress is not going to matter to the Asia Pacific because it’s not going to affect trade policy," Okun said. "Congress cannot change that … Tariffs don’t change. The war doesn’t change."
Some analysts see a narrow opening. Stephen Olson of the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute suggested that a strong electoral rebuke of “Trumpism” could empower a pro-free-trade faction within the Republican Party, offering a “glimmer of hope” for Southeast Asian exporters. He added that any substantive shift in US trade policy is likely to wait until the 2028 presidential election.
Joshua Kurlantzick of the Council on Foreign Relations said the region’s wish list also includes more stable security guarantees from the United States, clearer US presence in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, and reduced economic unpredictability for businesses.
Both parties are expected to pass tougher restrictions on Chinese technology, such as the Remote Access Security Act, the Chip Security Act and the MATCH Act, which aim to tighten export controls and align allied policies. "The next Congress is going to pass them regardless of midterms because both parties agree on them," Okun said, noting that President Trump remains the least restrictive official on China.
Some observers warn that a lame-duck Trump, constrained by a Democratic Congress, could adopt a more erratic foreign-policy stance. "We should not be surprised by continued erratic foreign policy," said James Guild, an assistant professor at the Indonesian International Islamic University.