Study finds 300,000 people in Himalayan region now live in high-risk zones due to construction boom
Research published in Scientific Reports shows a 45% rise in built-up land in vulnerable areas of Nepal, Tibet and India's Uttarakhand between 2016 and 2023, putting hundreds of thousands at increased risk of floods and glacial-lake outburst disasters.
A peer-reviewed study published in Scientific Reports reports that built-up land in high-risk zones of northern Nepal, south-eastern Tibet and a corner of India's Uttarakhand grew by about 45% from 2016 to 2023. Development in flood-prone glacial-lake areas rose even faster, increasing by almost 78% over the same period. The analysis, which covered zones up to 50 km downstream of Himalayan rivers and around 1,360 glacial lakes, identified roughly 300,000 residents now living in areas vulnerable to landslides, floods and glacial-lake outburst floods.
Researchers noted that the true number of people at risk could be higher, as the study focused on a limited territory. The findings were released before the August floods that killed more than 1,400 people in Nepal and preceded subsequent incidents, such as the October 11 Budhi Gandaki river flood that damaged 200 houses and left five people missing.
Local officials highlighted the challenges. > "Where we move them, and how we do that, is the real challenge," said Dhana Raj Acharya, mayor of Pokhara, where many buildings sit within five metres of the Seti Gandaki River despite new setback rules. Tourism operators expressed concern; Phurpa Chhiring Lama, who runs a homestay in the Annapurna region, said occupancy fell from 20 rooms to five after recent disasters, and hotel owner Krishna Gauchan warned of constant fear of flooding from the glacier-fed Modi River.
Industry observers said rapid, unplanned expansion has increased exposure. Khagendra Poudel, a geographer at Tribhuvan University, said tourism investors often promote destinations without accounting for hazard risks. Laxman Subedi, president of the Hotel Association Pokhara, acknowledged that businesses have grown "without any proper planning" and are now trying to raise awareness among entrepreneurs.
The study also documented a surge in hydropower plant construction along the Bhotekoshi and Trishuli river valleys. Lead author C Scott Watson, a glaciologist at the University of Leeds, warned that as river valleys become more populated, today's development decisions will shape disaster risk for decades.
Scientists attribute the heightened danger to warming in the Himalayas, which is occurring at roughly twice the global average. Accelerated glacier melt expands glacial lakes, increasing the likelihood of outburst floods, while higher temperatures shift precipitation from snow to rain at altitude, destabilising slopes.
Nepal's prime minister, Balendra Shah, cited climate change as a major threat in a recent UN General Assembly address, noting that disasters force the country to borrow money for repairs it did not cause. Experts such as Alton Byers, a mountain geographer at the University of Colorado, called the study a potential "springboard" for better early-warning systems.
Authorities say they are tightening regulations. The national disaster agency plans to ban settlements within 15 m of riverbanks in the Rasuwa-Bhotekoshi corridor, with similar rules slated for other river corridors. Chief executive Dharam Raj Uprety said the task is difficult because many residents have strong attachments to their land, but risk cannot be ignored.
In India's Uttarakhand, activists claim that tourism limits and environmental rules have been bypassed for economic growth. Anoop Nautiyal suggested that insurance grading could incentivise construction in safer zones, but construction activity continues unabated across the region.