Tesla expected to post flat Q3 2026 revenue and lower earnings per share
Analysts forecast that Tesla's third-quarter 2026 revenue will be roughly unchanged year over year at about $28 billion, while earnings per share are projected to fall 10% to $0.45.
Tesla is set to release its third-quarter 2026 financial results on October 21 after market close, with an earnings call scheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET. Wall Street consensus expects revenue to be flat around $28 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share to decline to $0.45, down 10% from a year earlier.
The company delivered 486,532 vehicles in the quarter, a 2.1% drop from the record 497,099 deliveries in Q3 2025 but still above the analyst consensus of 461,974. Production totaled 464,391 units, leaving an inventory reduction of 22,141 vehicles for the second consecutive quarter.
Model 3 and Model Y accounted for 478,237 of the deliveries, while sales of other models—including the Cybertruck, Semi, and remaining Model S and X units—fell 48% year over year to 8,295 units.
In the energy segment, Tesla deployed 13.7 GWh of storage, a 9.6% increase from a year earlier but short of the roughly 15.9 GWh analysts expected and below the 14.2 GWh record set in Q4 2025.
Revenue estimates range from $25.1 billion to $30.6 billion, with the Wall Street median at $28.06 billion and Estimize at $28.36 billion. The flat revenue outlook reflects the absence of the $7,500 federal tax credit that boosted Q3 2025 sales.
Operating margins have narrowed, with automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits falling to 16.3% in Q2 after a 19.2% rate in Q1. Regulatory credit revenue dropped 67% year over year to $146 million in Q2.
Free cash flow turned negative in Q2, with a $1.09 billion outflow as capital expenditures rose to $5.8 billion. Management has guided total 2026 capex to exceed $25 billion, primarily in the second half of the year.
Shareholder questions ahead of the earnings call focused on the Cybercab fleet, the timeline for unsupervised full-self-driving, and the economics of the robotaxi and Optimus projects.