Midseason college football analysis highlights upsets, surprise teams and Heisman contenders
Week 7 saw five top-10 teams lose, reshaping the AP poll and underscoring growing parity in college football, while analysts project surprise contenders and Heisman candidates for the second half of the season.
After a weekend in which five of the top ten AP-ranked teams were defeated, the college football landscape has shifted dramatically. Only six teams remain unbeaten, including No. 1 Miami, No. 2 BYU, No. 8 Texas Tech, No. 9 UCLA, No. 10 Utah and unranked James Madison. Texas, which beat Ohio State early in the season, fell to unranked Oklahoma and Florida, marking the first time since 1990 that the No. 1 team has lost to unranked opponents in consecutive weeks. Oregon, another preseason favorite, has dropped out of the rankings after a slow start.
Analysts attribute the volatility to increased parity driven by name-image-likeness (NIL) deals and free-transfer rules introduced in 2021, which have reduced the recruiting advantage of traditional power programs. "The blue bloods no longer have their stranglehold on a recruiting environment that changed drastically," one commentator noted, adding that direct athlete compensation and player mobility have leveled the field for many top-30 programs.
Among the surprise performers, Wake Forest has risen to second place in the ACC, while Northwestern’s only loss was a close game against Indiana. UCLA, led by first-year head coach Bob Chesney, remains undefeated and is viewed as a potential CFP contender. Other teams highlighted for their upward trajectory include Texas Tech, Indiana, SMU, Ole Miss and Kentucky.
Heisman discussions feature Miami quarterback Darian Mensah as a leading candidate, with Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith also receiving strong support. Critics pointed to Texas and quarterback Arch Manning as the season’s biggest disappointment, citing the Longhorns’ inability to capitalize on their resources.
The SEC, still regarded as the strongest conference, has seen every member lose at least one conference game, raising doubts about its chances for a national title. While Georgia remains a hopeful SEC representative, analysts question whether its offense can sustain success through the playoff stage.
Overall, experts predict a "wild second half" of the season, with the possibility of a two- or three-loss national champion emerging as parity continues to shape outcomes.