Army Chief warned of five-year missile-defense shortfall before Iran conflict
General Randy George warned in December that U.S. Army missile-defense stocks would remain critically low through 2030, a warning that preceded his removal by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth amid the ongoing war with Iran.
In late December, two months before the United States entered the war with Iran, Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George warned that the Army’s inventory of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) batteries and Patriot missiles was critically short and would stay that way for about five years. The assessment, included in the Pentagon’s Global Force Management Allocation Plan for fiscal year 2027, cited the transfer of Patriot systems to Ukraine, extensive use of interceptors to defend Israel, and a weakened defense industrial base as key factors.
U.S. officials familiar with the plan said the shortage stems from the diversion of Patriot interceptors to Ukraine after Russia’s 2022 invasion, high expenditure of munitions in support of Israel, and limited production capacity. While the United States retains sizable stocks of offensive weapons such as Joint Direct Attack Munitions, the THAAD and Patriot interceptor inventories are at “low strategic-risk levels,” officials said.
"Those are the two Army munitions that would be most heavily used in a conflict with China," said Mark Cancian, a retired Marine colonel and senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
CSIS estimates indicate that before the Iran war the U.S. held roughly 2,300 Patriot PAC-3 interceptors, of which 1,050-1,430 were expended during the conflict—about 61% of the pre-war stock. THAAD interceptors fell from around 355 to between 190 and 290, an 82% depletion. Replenishment deliveries are expected to be limited, with the next major increase slated for fiscal year 2027.
Lockheed Martin and RTX (Raytheon) have signed agreements to accelerate production, and Lockheed Martin announced plans to raise THAAD output from 96 to 400 interceptors per year. Nonetheless, a Pentagon official warned that even without further use, restoring the December 2025 stockpile levels could take until 2030.
Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell dismissed claims of shortages, stating, "Claims of U.S. munitions shortages are false… we have everything required to strike at the time and place of the President's choosing," and added that the U.S. continues to conduct operations with a "deep, ready arsenal."
Analysts traced the shortfall to post-Cold War reductions in inventory and industrial capacity, consolidation of defense contractors from 51 to five, and procurement choices that favored platforms over ammunition. The shift left the defense base ill-suited for rapid surge production, a weakness exposed by the Ukraine war and now the Iran conflict.