McDonald's targets chicken and beverage growth amid rising competition
McDonald's aims to increase its share of the global chicken and beverage markets by 2030, but recent consumer-spending data shows rivals such as Chick-fil-A and major coffee chains gaining ground among its customers.
McDonald’s announced at its September investor day that it plans to add 1.5 percentage points to its global market share in both chicken and beverages by 2030, viewing the categories as key growth drivers beyond its beef business. CEO Chris Kempczinski said the chicken market is worth about $130 billion, where the chain holds roughly 20 % share, and the beverage market is about $230 billion, with a 10 % share, compared with a 40 % share in the $50 billion beef segment.
Consumer Edge data, which tracks credit-card transactions, indicates that McDonald’s may face a challenging environment in those segments. In the third quarter, Chick-fil-A increased its share of limited-service restaurant spending by 0.58 percentage points, the largest gain among tracked chains. Coffee providers, including drive-thru-only 7 Brew, Starbucks, Dutch Bros. Coffee and Dunkin’, together added 0.88 percentage points of spending share from McDonald’s customers.
McDonald’s remains the largest individual chain in overall limited-service restaurant spending, though its share fell year-over-year. Burger King, owned by Restaurant Brands International, recorded the biggest gain among burger chains with a 0.24-point increase.
"There’s a big battle for a smaller amount of restaurant spend as people become more selective in what they spend," said Michael Gunther, senior vice president at Consumer Edge.
Gunther added that the data does not capture specific menu choices, so the impact on McDonald’s chicken and beverage initiatives is uncertain.
The fast-food company has reported sluggish sales but noted modest improvement toward the end of the third quarter, expecting September comparable sales in the United States to turn positive. Consumer Edge data showed that the decline in McDonald’s spending share narrowed across all income groups in September.
Analysts expressed caution about the timeline for the new strategy. Bernstein analyst Danilo Gargiulo said recent U.S. beverage launches have not generated sufficient sales to offset broader weakness, and the upcoming chicken platform, featuring hand-breaded and grilled items, appears farther off than anticipated.
"The scale of investment required to deliver McDonald’s Next was above our expectations and introduces additional pressure on near-term earnings," Gargiulo wrote, maintaining a market-perform rating and a $295 price target. Shares closed around $235 on Friday.