Eric Samulski releases Week 4 fantasy football DST rankings and methodology

Analyst Eric Samulski has published his Week 4 rankings for fantasy football defenses (DSTs) for the 2026 NFL season, accompanied by an explanation of his tiered approach and the statistical formula he uses. He notes that recent upsets involving backup quarterbacks, such as Case Keenum and Marcus Mariota, illustrate the risk of selecting defenses solely based on opponent quality.

Samulski divides his picks into five tiers: Tier One for elite defenses, Tier Two for strong options, Tier Three for borderline top-10 plays, Tier Four for deep-league targets and Tier Five for defenses he advises against. He tracks his success rate, currently 47% for the season, and emphasizes that his rankings rely on underlying defensive metrics rather than gut feeling.

His updated Best Overall Defense (BOD) formula weighs seven statistics—first-downs allowed, points per game allowed, third-down conversion rate, pressure rate, passes defended, turnover rate and explosive-play rate allowed—giving double weight to the three most predictive categories. The model also incorporates Vegas implied team totals and, when available, opponent fantasy points allowed.

For Week 4, Samulski lists the Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks as his Tier One selections, citing strong performances in pressure, turnover and third-down metrics. Tier Two includes the Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills and Cleveland Browns, each matched against opponents with injury concerns or lower implied totals. Tier Three features defenses such as the Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, while Tier Four and Tier Five contain teams he considers marginal or unsuitable for most fantasy formats.

Samulski advises fantasy owners to prioritize solid defenses with favorable underlying stats, even when facing competent offenses, and to adjust for injuries, weather and other variables each week.