Analysts Warn Gold and Silver May Face Fresh Pressure Ahead of Inflation Data and Geopolitical Tensions
After a week of strong gains, gold and silver prices could face renewed pressure as investors await U.S. inflation figures and monitor developments in U.S.-Iran relations.
Gold and silver prices are expected to encounter renewed pressure next week despite a recent rally, analysts said. The caution follows a week in which gold futures rose 4.5% and silver climbed 5.4% globally, recovering from earlier losses. PTI reported that Comex gold futures for December delivery gained $176 to settle at $4,074.9 per ounce, while silver advanced $2.6 to $51.94 per ounce. On India’s Multi Commodity Exchange, December gold futures rose nearly 3% to about Rs 1.42 lakh per 10 grams, and silver gained 3.15% to around Rs 1.84 lakh per kilogram.
"Gold and silver's momentum remains down as investors will focus on the inflation data from China, the US, Germany, Japan, India, etc along with some Fed officials' commentary," said Pranav Mer, senior vice president, EBG – Commodity & Currency Research at JM Financial Services.
The upcoming U.S. consumer inflation report on November 10 and India’s October retail inflation data on November 12 are among the key releases that could shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next rate move. Higher interest rates typically weigh on gold, which yields no interest, and a stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated bullion costlier for holders of other currencies.
U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed limited American strikes against Iranian air-defence systems on Qeshm Island and said Washington had made "a lot of progress" in negotiations with Tehran, adding geopolitical uncertainty to the mix. Analysts will also watch Russia-Ukraine talks and crude-oil price movements, as higher energy prices can heighten inflation concerns and influence monetary-policy expectations.
Precious metals had surged earlier in the week on bargain buying, short-covering and safe-haven demand after a sell-off in global technology and AI-related stocks, PTI noted. The rally lost steam on Friday following stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data that lifted the dollar and Treasury yields. Mer said the market initially felt pressure from robust U.S. non-farm payroll figures and improving consumer sentiment before recovering, and he linked part of the mid-week rally to the U.S. midterm election outcome, which gave Democrats control of both chambers of Congress.