One Nation senior figure Barnaby Joyce downplays Victorian prospects, eyes NSW as key test

Barnaby Joyce, a senior One Nation representative, told the publication that the party’s Victorian election outlook is being used by opponents as a test, but the real "litmus test" will be next year’s New South Wales poll. He added that poor Labor polling in Victoria is likely to generate preference flows to the Liberal Party, which could benefit One Nation’s position in some seats.

Joyce’s comments contrast with statements from Warren Pickering, One Nation’s leading Victorian candidate, who has spoken about the party’s ambition to form a government in the state. Pickering declined to discuss preferences and emphasized the party’s intent to win regardless of parliamentary composition.

Election analyst Antony Green, who has long covered Australian elections, estimated that One Nation could secure up to six lower-house seats nationally. He noted that the party’s primary vote in Victoria has slipped into the low-20 percent range, making it difficult to win seats without favorable preference allocations. In many rural electorates, Green expects One Nation to finish second but lose to Coalition candidates aided by Labor preferences.

In urban areas, the party may also place second in traditional working-class seats, but a reduced Liberal vote could limit the flow of preferences needed to overtake Labor. Despite challenges in the lower house, One Nation is projected to win several upper-house seats, which do not rely on preferences and could give the party leverage over a Coalition government.

In New South Wales, Labor Premier Chris Minns has positioned One Nation as his main opponent, and party officials have warned that Labor could lose a significant number of seats if One Nation gains traction. Joyce highlighted that the voting dynamics in NSW differ from Victoria, suggesting that the Liberal Party may finish third in many seats, altering the impact of preference flows.