Analysts Warn Texas Political Shift Could Delay 10-15 GW of Data Center Capacity in 2027

Analysts at Altimeter Capital say a potential moratorium on new data centers in Texas could delay 10-15 gigawatts of capacity expected to come online in 2027. Brad Gerstner noted that the state accounts for about a quarter of the United States' planned data-center capacity through 2030 and that recent political changes could slow construction.

Gerstner cited a consensus forecast of 43 GW of new capacity for 2027, which would exceed the total 38 GW built to date. He warned that the expected build-out might be cut by roughly a third if Texas imposes stricter regulations.

Democratic Governor-candidate Gina Hinojosa has called for zero subsidies, unionized labor, and proof that new facilities will not increase household water or power bills, raising the likelihood of a moratorium.

"The big fear is that in a blue tsunami, particularly in the state of Texas, you have Hinojosa, who will issue a moratorium on new data centers," Gerstner said.

The outlook has already impacted market sentiment, with shares of Nvidia and CoreWeave falling after the assessment. Gerstner added that the political environment, including recent elections, adds regulatory risk to the sector.

Elon Musk responded to the developments by suggesting that space-based data centers may become a more viable option for AI compute. He remarked that his concept of orbital AI compute, involving satellites built on the Moon and launched via electromagnetic tracks, is now more attractive.

"Data centers in space looking pretty appealing right now," Musk said.

The situation underscores how state-level policy decisions could influence the timeline of the United States' AI infrastructure expansion.