Victorian Labor MPs alarmed as new poll shows party trailing One Nation

A poll commissioned by DemosAU and PremierNational and first reported by the Herald Sun shows Victorian Labor’s primary-vote share falling to 18%, its lowest on record, placing the party third behind the Coalition at 33% and One Nation at 21%. The Greens rose to 17%, up three points since September. On a two-party-preferred basis the Coalition leads Labor 56-44, compared with 52-48 in September.

"If that happens, One Nation has to poll really, really well to have a chance of winning, because Labor and Greens preferences will flow to the Liberals," said George Hasanakos, head of research at DemosAU.

Hasanakos said the poll surveyed 1,562 respondents (effective sample 818) with a 3.4% margin of error and that he had “double, triple, quadruple checked” the results. He added that if the poll were replicated on election night many contests could be between the Liberals or Nationals and One Nation, potentially delivering a “clear Coalition majority”.

Victorian Labor leader Ben Carroll declined to comment on whether the poll caused him concern, stating at a press conference in South Melbourne that his focus remains on “fighting for working people” and warning that a “Liberal-One Nation government” would “shrink the economy, cause a recession and make life difficult for every single Victorian.”

Within Labor’s campaign headquarters, some members are treating the poll as an outlier and pointing to other surveys that show the party’s primary vote in the 20s. Unnamed Labor MPs told Guardian Australia that the caucus is “angry and deflated” and that the campaign strategy, particularly the recent emphasis on crime, is being questioned.

The opposition leader, Jess Wilson, said her party is concentrating on “getting tough on crime” and is preparing to introduce “Aidan’s Law” to increase penalties for attacks on people who intervene to protect others. Premier Carroll responded by pledging to introduce the same legislation, named after 22-year-old Aidan Becker, who was fatally stabbed at Mernda station while defending a teenager.

The poll’s release coincides with reports that former One Nation campaign director Sean Black, who was convicted of rape in 2018, continues to work for the party in Victoria, a claim Pauline Hanson has denied.