Key Victorian electorates could decide the state election on Nov. 28
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Analysts say a handful of marginal seats, including Sydenham, Morwell and Ripon, will be pivotal as Labor, the Coalition and One Nation vie for the 45 seats needed for a majority.
Premier Ben Carroll described the upcoming Victorian election as the most important in a generation, while opposition leader Jess Wilson framed it as a chance for a "fresh start" after 12 years of Labor government. One Nation leader Warren Pickering pledged to "shake the established order to its core" and position his party as the third major force in state politics.
The election is scheduled for Nov. 28, and the Coalition must win 16 additional seats to reach the 45 needed for a majority. Current polling shows Labor trailing, with One Nation only two points behind the major party, reshaping the contest in several districts.
In Melbourne’s outer west, the seat of Sydenham is expected to become a three-way race after incumbent Labor member Natalie Hutchins announced she will not re-contest. In the Latrobe Valley, Morwell is highlighted as a prime target for One Nation, with analysts noting its older, post-industrial demographic mirrors areas that have shifted toward populist parties elsewhere.
Regional seats also feature prominently. Bendigo East, long held by former premier Jacinta Allan, will see a new contest after her retirement, with Nationals candidate Tim Rickwood, One Nation’s Cheryl Hawken and independent Andrew Lethlean vying for the seat. In Ripon, incumbent Labor MP Martha Haylett retained the seat in 2022 by a narrow margin, but analysts doubt Labor can hold it, suggesting a possible gain for One Nation or the Liberals.
Melton, part of Labor’s western-suburban “red wall,” will see incumbent Steve McGhie step down, opening the field to Labor’s Broden Borg, local councillor Jarrod Bingham and candidates from One Nation and the West Party. Commentators note the area’s frustration over the lack of metro rail extensions.
In northern Victoria, Shepparton, the base of One Nation’s upper-house member Rikkie-Lee Tyrrell, will be contested by former mayor Shane Sali for the Nationals after the retirement of MP Kim O’Keeffe. The seat’s history of strong Nationals support and occasional independent wins makes it a focal point for the Coalition’s bid to retain existing seats.
Eastern suburban seats such as Ringwood and the sandbelt districts along the Frankston line are also under scrutiny. While Labor captured Ringwood in 2018, the incumbent will not re-contest, and analysts differ on the likelihood of a Liberal hold versus a Labor gain. In the sandbelt, Labor is seen as having better prospects in the more gentrified seats of Mordialloc and Bentleigh than in Carrum and Frankston, where financial pressures are higher.
Overall, political observers stress that the Coalition’s path to a majority hinges on defending its current holdings while targeting vulnerable Labor seats, whereas One Nation’s surge could reshape the traditional two-party dynamics in both metropolitan and regional electorates.