Greens internal poll shows lead over One Nation as Victorian election approaches

Internal polling conducted by the Greens between 14 and 26 October shows the party’s statewide primary vote at 15%, ahead of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, which recorded 14% in the same survey. The poll, which surveyed 1,488 eligible voters with a 3% margin of error, also placed the two-party-preferred vote at 54–46 in favour of the Coalition, closely matching a Newspoll released earlier this week.

The Greens’ figures contrast with Newspoll’s estimate of a 20% primary vote for One Nation, suggesting a possible decline for the party if the Greens’ numbers hold. The survey also indicated the Coalition at 32% and Labor at 25% of the primary vote.

Opposition leader Jess Wilson used a recent media appearance to question One Nation’s policy costing, stating, “One Nation doesn’t even plan on submitting a single policy for costing.” The claim follows a report that the Parliamentary Budget Office estimated the cost of One Nation’s proposed baby-bonus and children’s sport voucher scheme at $688.7 million, far above the $136 million announced by the party.

Greens leader Ellen Sandell, citing the poll, said the party’s support is rising and justified her inclusion in an upcoming “people’s forum” on 17 November alongside Premier Ben Carroll and One Nation’s Warren Pickering. Sandell added, “We’re seeing a huge surge in support for the Greens right now because people are fed up with the major parties and they want real change.” Wilson confirmed she will also participate in the forum after initially rejecting a three-way debate.

The Greens are preparing a major campaign event in Melbourne, with around 200 volunteers scheduled to canvass three inner-city electorates. Party sources say the poll gives them confidence to retain their three lower-house seats and target additional seats in Prahran, Northcote, Pascoe Vale and Footscray.