Intel stock plunge cuts value of U.S. Commerce Department's stake by $11 billion in a day

Intel's shares dropped to $65.91 by mid-morning on Oct. 30, 2026, a 28.41% decline from the previous day's close of $92.07. At that price, the 433.3 million shares the Commerce Department acquired under its August 2025 agreement are valued at roughly $28.56 billion, down from about $39.9 billion a day earlier, a paper loss of $11.34 billion.

The decline follows Intel's fourth-quarter outlook, which projected revenue of $15-$16 billion and earnings of $0.25 per share, both below analysts' expectations. The company also warned that a recent accident at its Israel fab would shave about $300 million from fourth-quarter revenue and projected a shrinking PC market in 2026 and 2027.

Under the 2025 agreement, the Commerce Department purchased 433.3 million new common shares at $20.47 each, representing roughly 10% of Intel, and received warrants for an additional 240.5 million shares. The purchase was funded by $5.7 billion in CHIPS Act grants and $3.2 billion from the Secure Enclave program. The five-year warrants carry a $20 exercise price and can be exercised only if Intel retains less than 51% of its foundry business.

While the stock drop affected other chip makers—Dell fell about 13%, AMD about 10% and NVIDIA about 3%—Intel remains up nearly 79% year-to-date. The company's foundry segment posted a $1.85 billion operating loss for the third quarter, and management indicated that customers are developing products on the upcoming Intel 14A process but did not name them.

Despite the sharp one-day decline, the Commerce Department's stake remains well above its cost basis. Analysts note that future stock performance will hinge on Intel's ability to secure external foundry customers and on the broader PC market trends.