Yamal, Mbappe and Kane lead predictions for 2026 Ballon d’Or
AI firm Avisia ranks Lamine Yamal as the favourite for the 2026 Ballon d’Or, while bookmakers and football figures back Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe.
The 2026 Ballon d’Or ceremony will be held at the London Palladium on Monday, with three players emerging as the main contenders. Spanish teenager Lamine Yamar, French forward Kylian Mbappe and England striker Harry Kane dominate the discussion ahead of the award.
Data from French AI and data-analysis company Avisia gives Yamar a 23 % chance of winning, followed by Kane at 21 % and Mbappe at 19 %. The firm also places Lionel Messi at 18 % and Rodri at 19 % in its top-five list. Avisia noted that its predictions matched the top five for the 2025 Ballon d’Or, which was won by Ousmane Dembélé.
Bookmakers, however, list Kane as the clear favourite, assigning him roughly a 70 % probability of success.
Football personalities have voiced their views. Atletico Madrid manager Diego Simeone said, "After the World Cup, he played at his age… No doubt about it," referring to Messi. Former Italy defender Marco Materazzi added, "With all due respect to Yamar, I think Messi showed, at 38 years old, he’s in a different league."
England midfielder Jude Bellingham praised Kane, stating, "He works so hard for it, and he’s a very honest and hard-working person," and noted that a win for Kane is "definitely possible." England forward Anthony Gordon supported Yamar, saying, "What Lamine has achieved at such a young age… the kind of player he is, is ridiculous. He’s on a whole other level."
Real Madrid midfielder Aurélien Tchouaméni backed Mbappe, calling his season "incredible."
Statistically, Mbappe leads the race with 25 La Liga goals and 15 Champions League goals, and he also earned the World Cup Golden Boot with a record 12 tournament goals. Kane scored 73 goals across all competitions last season, the highest total since Messi’s 82 in 2011-12. Yamar contributed to Spain’s World Cup win and Barcelona’s La Liga title, though injuries limited his personal statistics.
Historical trends suggest that winning a major tournament during the award year improves a player’s chances; only four of the last 19 winners did not secure a Champions League, World Cup, European Championship or Copa América title in the relevant season. Yamar’s recent titles could therefore strengthen his candidacy, and a win would make him the youngest Ballon d’Or recipient, surpassing Ronaldo’s 1997 record.