Poll Shows Democrats Holding Lead Ahead of 2026 Midterms as Trump Remains Central Figure

Democrats lead Republicans by about 10 points among registered voters, according to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll released a week before Election Day. The margin is within the poll’s error range, but the party has maintained a consistent advantage since November. Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, said the lead reflects "a net advantage just from some partisan crossover, not enormous," adding that independents are favoring Democrats by double digits.

Early voting may have already cemented the Democratic edge, with more than 30 million ballots cast nationwide, half of which were mailed. The poll shows that 68% of voters who have already voted support Democrats, while the remaining voters are split evenly between parties.

Republican strategists acknowledge that many of their supporters plan to vote on Election Day, with half of Republican likely voters intending to cast an in-person ballot compared with 31% of Democrats. Both parties expect a competitive Senate race, though Democrats are viewed as having a slight edge.

President Donald Trump has been the focal point of the Republican campaign, holding rallies in over a dozen states, most of which he won in 2024. The poll indicates that 44% of likely voters see their congressional vote as a vote against Trump, more than double the 21% who view it as a vote for him. Among Democrats and independents, opposition to Trump is a major driver, while only 12% of independents say they are voting to support him.

"Accountability and opposition to Trump is enough to get out your normal midterm majority to win for Democrats," Democratic strategist Joel Payne said, adding that this motivation may not be sufficient for long-term coalition building.

Republican strategist Melik Abdul expressed concern about the party’s prospects, noting that the House appears "very much out of our reach" but that Republicans could retain the Senate by a narrow margin.

Voter priorities focus on the cost of living (34%) and preserving democracy (33%). Democrats rank democracy higher, while Republicans place the economy first. Economic strain is evident, with 38% of likely voters reporting that their family finances have worsened over the past year.

Enthusiasm for voting is high overall, but Democrats lead among the most enthusiastic voters (71% vs. 61% for Republicans). Younger voters under 45 favor Democrats by 22 points but show lower levels of very high enthusiasm compared with older voters.

Despite $10 billion spent on advertising in the 2026 cycle, 39% of likely voters report no contact from campaigns. Democrats report higher outreach rates than Republicans.

Trump’s repeated claims about election integrity have not resonated broadly; more than three-quarters of likely voters are confident their state or local elections will be fair. However, his rhetoric appears to be pushing independents away, according to Miringoff.

The poll also notes that voter turnout plans are solidifying, with 40% intending to vote on Election Day, 25% planning early in-person voting, and 12% planning to vote by mail.